As the United States and China compete for influence, Gulf and Middle Eastern states are increasingly pursuing their own strategies for navigating the rivalry. In this episode of Picking Up Where We Left Off, Robert Mogielnicki and Jesse Marks examine China’s evolving role in the Middle East, from its enduring economic ties in energy, infrastructure, and sovereign wealth investment to its more cautious approach to regional security. They explore what the Iran war revealed about the limits of Beijing’s willingness to act as a security partner, and how Gulf states are responding by focusing less on choosing between Washington and Beijing and more on strengthening their own strategic autonomy.

The conversation then turns to the next major arena of competition: artificial intelligence, where billions in Gulf investment, U.S. technology, Chinese capabilities, and the push for “sovereign AI” are creating new opportunities and dependencies for the region. Looking ahead, Mogielnicki and Marks consider whether China will expand its diplomatic and security role in the region and argue that the emerging contest over AI infrastructure and technology ecosystems may ultimately prove more consequential than the traditional U.S.-China rivalry over influence.

Dr. Robert Mogielnicki is the founder of Polisphere Advisory and a Middle East advisor with Teneo. He is also a non-resident fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute, the Sultan Qaboos Cultural Center research fellow for 2025–2026, a columnist with Arabian Gulf Business Insight, and a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Jesse Marks is a research scholar at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australia National University where he is researching AI sovereignty in the Middle East as well as Sino-Arab relations. He previously worked as a Middle East policy advisor at the Department of Defense's Middle East policy office and is a regular commentator on Middle East geopolitics.



    Podcast, China, China-MENA, MENA, Gulf States, US-China Relations, Saudi Arabia, UAE, AI, Energy Security, Strategic Autonomy, Gulf Security, US Foreign Policy, Hollings Center
    • 92 bpm
    • Key: Abm